Impact of Oil Revenue and Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Output Performance in Nigeria
Keywords:
Economic Output Performance, Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Gross Domestic Product, Oil Revenue
Abstract
This study utilized ex-post facto research design. Secondary data from annual time series covering forty- three years (1981- 2023) obtained from CBN yearly publication (2024) and World Development Indicators (WDI, 2024). Predicted variable was the economic output performance measured using GDP, while exchange rate fluctuations and oil revenue represented the manipulated variable. In the meantime, to prevent the issue of omission variable mistakes from ever occurring, external debt and rate of inflation were adopted as control variables. Data sourced were evaluated using descriptive statistics for preliminary examination. ARDL was employed to assess the relationship between the variables, the empirical outcomes demonstrated that exchange rate fluctuations remarkably influenced output performance of the economy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, revenue from oil had adverse and statistically significant influence on economic output performance as measured by GDP. The study suggested a need for public authority to diversify the economy and consider effective management of exchange rate and oil revenue to promote sustainable output performance.
References
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Kabiru, S. M., Rabiu, M., Hassan, U. S. & Abdurahman, M. (2019) Crude oil Price and Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: ARDL Approach. Open Access library Journal . 6(12)
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Ngbomene, C., Ashakah, F. O., Metieh, F. C., Okoro, E. N., Dim, H. C., & Opara, F. N. (2025). Crude Oil Price volatility and the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 15(3).390 - 402
Okereke, I. E., Uma, K. E., Ogbonnaya, I., Okpara, E. O., Ugwu, O. C., Ezinne, A.C. & Eze, A.T. (2023) Impact of the Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Innovative Research in Education Technology and Social Strategies 10(2) 119- 139
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Ozigbo, S.A., Ekane, R. O., & Ujuju, L.E. (2025). Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria; An Empirical Analysis. International Journal of Economic and Finance, 15(2),252-259
Popoola, O. M., Mutia, N. C., Dervishay, V., Nguyen,C.M.,Kumari, S, & Bhatia, G. (2024). Exploring The Impact of Oil Revenue on Nigerian Economy Growth .A non-Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag Models. OPEC Energy Review Journal, 48(4),293-307.
Rafiu, I. A. (2023). Effect of Oil revenue on Economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from Quartile Regression Method. DBN Journal of Economic and Sustainable Growth. 6(4),107-121.
Segal, T. (2025). About Us. Retrieved August 27th 2025 from How currency fluctuations affect the economy : https://www.investopedia.com
Uremadu, S. O., Chinweoke, N. & Duru-Uremadu, C. E. (2020). Impact of non oil revenue on economic growth of Nigeria (199 4-2017): An empirical analysis. International Journal of Research and innovation in Applied Science, 5(6),46 -64.
Yahaya, K. A., & Yusuf, K. (2019). Impact of non-oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Accounting and Management 9(2), 56-69
Abubakar, A. B. (2019) Oil Price and Exchange Rate Nexus in Nigeria: Are there Asymmetric. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics 10(1) 1-28
Aderoju, B.R. (2017). An Empirical Analysis of Oil Revenue, Non-Oil Revenue and Economic Development in Nigeria (1980-2016). International Journal of Innovative and Economic, 7(4), 143-151.
Ajagbe, S. T., Olanipekun, W. D., Abduikadri, M., Hakeem, A. A. & Abatan, O. O. (2024). Impact of Exchange Rate and Crude Oil Price on Economic Growth. AUDOE Journal, 20(4), 251-266.
Akinlolu, A.O. & Nejo, F. M. (2020). Oil revenue and Nigerian Economic Growth from 1981-2018: A resource Curse? International Journal Management Studies and Social Sciences Research 2(4), 291-304.
Aminu, A. M., Alexander, A. A., Yakubu, A. & Aladi, O. A. (2022). Effect of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth; Evidence from Nigeria. Sokoto Journal of the Social Sciences. 12(1), 28-46.
Bernard, O. A., Lawal, I. O., & Asma’u, M. B. (2025).Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Economic Growth in Nigeria. The Nigerian Journal of Energy Environmental Economics and Policy, 15(1). 1-19.
Central Bank of Nigeria (2021) Exchange rate management in Nigeria: Understanding monetary policy3. https://www.cbn.gov.ng.
Chen, J. (2024). About Us. Retrieved August 27th 2025 from Exchange Rates: What they, How they work and why they fluctuate?: https://www.investopedia.com
Dauda, M., Alege, P.O., Ewetan, O. O., & Asemota, F. F. (2023) Oil Revenue and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: Empirical Analysis; International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13(4), 150-155
Ebimobowel, E. O. (2022).Oil revenue and economic growth of Nigeria: 1990- 2019. African Journal of Economics and sustainable development 5(1), 17-46.
Efanga, O. U., Obinne, U. G., & Okonya, O. C. (2020). Analysis of the impact of oil revenue on the economic growth of Nigeria between 1981 and 2018. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 11(2),25-34
Etale, L. M. & Ikechukwu, S. O. (2019) The Relationship Between Exchange Rate volatility, Trade Balance and Economic Growth in Nigeria; An Empirical Analysis. International Journal of Development Economics Sustainability 7(6) 1-14
Kabiru, S. M., Rabiu, M., Hassan, U. S. & Abdurahman, M. (2019) Crude oil Price and Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: ARDL Approach. Open Access library Journal . 6(12)
Mordi, C. N.(2022) Exchange Rate Policies in Nigeria. A Historical Perspective. CBN Economic and Financial Review 60(1). 21-39
Ngbomene, C., Ashakah, F. O., Metieh, F. C., Okoro, E. N., Dim, H. C., & Opara, F. N. (2025). Crude Oil Price volatility and the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 15(3).390 - 402
Okereke, I. E., Uma, K. E., Ogbonnaya, I., Okpara, E. O., Ugwu, O. C., Ezinne, A.C. & Eze, A.T. (2023) Impact of the Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Innovative Research in Education Technology and Social Strategies 10(2) 119- 139
Okpebenyo, W., Chuzzy, O. C., Onwubuya, C. C., & Igwe, A. (2023). Revisiting the resource curse in Nigeria, The case of Niger- Delta. KIU Interdisciplinary Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 4(1),259-276.
Ozigbo, S.A., Ekane, R. O., & Ujuju, L.E. (2025). Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria; An Empirical Analysis. International Journal of Economic and Finance, 15(2),252-259
Popoola, O. M., Mutia, N. C., Dervishay, V., Nguyen,C.M.,Kumari, S, & Bhatia, G. (2024). Exploring The Impact of Oil Revenue on Nigerian Economy Growth .A non-Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag Models. OPEC Energy Review Journal, 48(4),293-307.
Rafiu, I. A. (2023). Effect of Oil revenue on Economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from Quartile Regression Method. DBN Journal of Economic and Sustainable Growth. 6(4),107-121.
Segal, T. (2025). About Us. Retrieved August 27th 2025 from How currency fluctuations affect the economy : https://www.investopedia.com
Uremadu, S. O., Chinweoke, N. & Duru-Uremadu, C. E. (2020). Impact of non oil revenue on economic growth of Nigeria (199 4-2017): An empirical analysis. International Journal of Research and innovation in Applied Science, 5(6),46 -64.
Yahaya, K. A., & Yusuf, K. (2019). Impact of non-oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Accounting and Management 9(2), 56-69
Published
2026-05-02
How to Cite
Amusan , G. B., ALAO , O. A., & ADEYEMI, J. O. (2026). Impact of Oil Revenue and Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Output Performance in Nigeria. Global Journal of Accounting, 12(1), 9-20. Retrieved from https://gja.unilag.edu.ng/article/view/3082
Section
Articles
